Last week Mitt Romney had a narrow two-point lead in the Rasmussen Reports poll. The main talking point last week was Romney’s comments in a leaked fundraiser. It’s not a game changer, but President Obama has used the distraction to gain a couple of points. Nothing Earth-shattering is going on and the race is pretty much in the same spot with Obama up a point today. At this point four years ago Obama was up two points. That was the closest McCain was to Obama for the rest of the race.
2008
Obama – 49 %
McCain – 47%
President Obama currently has a one-point lead. The race is tied at 48 if “leaners” are included. That would leave the undecideds, who almost always break against the incumbent.
2012
Obama- 47%
Romney – 46%
In 2008, I analyzed state-by-state polls but I’m not going to bother this time around. There isn’t a reliable polling company that does state polls. If either candidate is up more than 1 percent in the popular vote they should win the electoral college. It can happen the other way, but it’s not very likely. In 2008, polls underestimated Obama’s support in Indiana and North Carolina. I suspect that most state polls are based too much on the 2008 model.
